Peter Robertson (Professor at Edinburgh Napier University) argues that, with some strategic policy changes, all is not over for the UK economy. What is more, career guidance professionals have an important role to play in this project of economic renewal.
These days, when I hear predictions of the future of work, I get that déjà vu feeling. I can’t help thinking I have heard it all before. Breathless enthusiasm for new technology, the importance of STEM, and the need to transform or die, often feature prominently. This is sometimes served with a side salad of how we should be more like Germany. Perhaps I am jaded, but I do know that I am not the only experienced career development professional who feels that we have been getting a similar message about the future of work and the skills requirements of employers for the last 20 years. We are now talking about the enormous impact of AI rather than the enormous impact of the internet, but the story is essentially the same.
The practical implications of workplace change for the delivery of career guidance may be less dramatic. New technology may both create and destroy some niche jobs, but major occupational structures and entry routes may be left unchanged. We still need teachers, bankers, nurses, and hairdressers, even if the gadgets they use are updated. Although industries using STEM skill sets may be iconic and of strategic importance, the sectors of the labour market that employ the most people lie elsewhere.
The problem of the UK economy
It can help to look at wider analysis of the economy. If you live in the UK this is not for the feint hearted. It is hard to look at what economists have to say about Britain, without feeling downhearted at the policy choices that have reduced the wealth of the nation, whilst fuelling poverty among the most vulnerable.
So, it was refreshing to read an analysis of what is wrong with the UK economy and how to fix it published by the Resolution Foundation, a think tank, with input from a wide range of economists. This was: Ending Stagnation – A new economic strategy for Britain – The final report of The Economy 2030 Inquiry. This report refrains from futurist hyperbole, and tends neither to fatalism nor naïve optimism. Their diagnosis of the problem centres on the toxic combination of low productivity with growing inequality.
Another report addresses similar ground, presenting individual accounts from leading economists rather than an integrated message. This is The State of the UK Economy in 2024 report from the UK in a Changing Europe, which is another think tank.
Some of the remedies suggested in these reports – such as consistent investment in strategic infrastructure, and a smarter tax system – are beyond the role of career development services. But there are some areas where I believe we have something to tangible to contribute.
The service sector matters
These reports argue that the UK should not try to be like Germany or any other country, but rather that our strengths today and in the future are likely to be the same strengths we had in previous decades. The UK is still the second biggest service sector provider nation in the world, and this sector will be at the core of any recovery. This means finance, business, higher education, ICT, and legal services. It also encompasses our world-class creative industries – such as music, architecture, and advertising.
Whilst it is fine for career services to promote STEM careers – there may be gender equality benefits, and they are relevant to some service sectors – it would be wrong to think that they are the magic bullet for the economy, or intrinsically worthy of more promotion than other fields. A wide range of other career areas matter to the economy too – career services can promote creative and service careers.
Cities matter
Both reports highlight spatial considerations. A key weakness in the UK economy is that cities outside of London lag behind in their productivity – Birmingham and Greater Manchester are singled out as particularly important. Whilst transport infrastructure and housing may be the best remedies, there is potential for career development to make at least some contribution.
Integrated career services in major cities have the potential to benefit from economies of scale. For example, specialist career service arrangements to support young people to access city centre labour markets used to exist in London and Glasgow. Parochial suburban youth may need encouragement to access these labour markets. There is something to be said for organising career services around city region travel to work areas.
London now has a strategy to co-ordinate career support for young people. There is the potential to establish similar city strategies in Birmingham and Greater Manchester too.
Education matters
The report argues that a big proportion of labour demand going forward will be for graduates – the service sector in the engine room of the economy needs a supply of well-educated workers. For those not going to university our vocational education and training structures continue to be difficult to navigate. So, the role of career development practitioners in helping people to find their way through the education and training system continues to be important. Providing support to access university continues to be valuable.
Good work matters
Having an industrial strategy is necessary and not all sectors should be favoured. The Resolution Foundation singles out hospitality as being larger than in other countries by virtue of being too cheap: driving down wages, and fuelling inequality.
The report advocates better pay in the hospitality sector but also good work more generally. It also points to the eye watering statistic that half of shift workers in Britain receive less than one week’s notice of their work hours and schedules. Regulation could remedy this.
There is still space for career development practitioners to contribute. We must teach young people what good work looks like and to how to recognise, avoid, and challenge poor employment practices. This can be done through raising awareness in career education as suggested in the CDI Framework or through Partnerships with trade unions.
Demographics matters
In the fuss about technology, the importance of demographics gets neglected. There are two big factors. Firstly, the growth in the number of elderly people in the UK means not only that there will be pressures on health services, but also that there will be a crisis if the social care workforce is not growing and capable to meet the challenge. This work needs promoting by career services every bit as much as STEM careers.
Secondly, the end of the baby boomer generation is moving towards retirement age, and that means a large number of the most experienced and skilled workers leaving the labour market. This problem is aggravated by recent trends for people in their early 60s to withdraw from the labour market. We are living longer but retiring early and the macro-economic impacts of this trend are not sustainable. The reasons for workplace withdrawal are debated – health is the biggest issue, but there is probably a cocktail of factors at work.
This means that after support for young people in transition from education to the labour market, one of the most cost-effective targets from career service resources could be older workers. There have been successful experiments with the Mid-Career Review, but with the exception of Careers Wales few services in the UK are treating this as a priority.
So what?
Things can get better if wise economic policy decisions are made. Career development services may not be the big-ticket solutions to these problems, but we can contribute. By promoting service sector opportunities, by integrating our services in city-regions, by education about good work, by supporting people into university and vocational training, and by offering career review services to older workers. And that’s just for starters…
Career guidance for social justice 